Peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season between 2.0°C and 2.4°C
2.0°C to 2.4°C is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season.
Price history
15¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
2.0°C to 2.4°C
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
At least 3.0°C 50¢
Range
2¢-50¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXRONI-27AUG-B20
Sep 25, 2026, 7:37 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
10¢
24h volume
$165
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season
Closes
Aug 15, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 15, 2027
Identifier
KXRONI-27AUG-B20
Event family
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
At least 3.0°C 50¢
Current share
14%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.