Price of Gold above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST
4,600 or above is priced at 54¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 57¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 13 inside Will the price of Gold be above.
Price history
54¢ current
+30¢Contract brief
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4600 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
4,600 or above
Rank
#4 of 13
Leader
4,300 or above 71¢
Range
16¢-71¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4600
Aug 23, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
57¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$301
Family rank
#4 of 13
13 outcomes · Will the price of Gold be above
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
57 / 58¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4600 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4600
Event family
Will the price of Gold be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
4,300 or above 71¢
Current share
13%
4,300 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4300
4,400 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4400
4,500 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4500
4,600 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4600
4,700 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4700
4,800 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4800
4,900 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T4900
5,000 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T5000
5,100 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T5100
5,200 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T5200
5,300 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T5300
5,400 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T5400
5,500 or above
kalshi · KXGOLDDIRY-26DEC31H1700-T5500
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.