Republican party · CONTROLH-2028
Republican party is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside CONTROLH-2028.
Price history
36¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If the Republican party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 66¢
Range
25¢-66¢
Family volume
$4
Identifier
CONTROLH-2028-R
May 24, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$13
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · CONTROLH-2028
Closes
Feb 1, 2029
Family volume
$4
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2029
Identifier
CONTROLH-2028-R
Event family
CONTROLH-2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 66¢
Current share
0%
Democratic party
kalshi · CONTROLH-2028-D
Republican party
kalshi · CONTROLH-2028-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.