Dan Patrick · KXLTGOVTX-26
Dan Patrick is priced at 79¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 79¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXLTGOVTX-26.
Price history
79¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as the Lieutenant Governor of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Dan Patrick
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Dan Patrick 79¢
Range
15¢-79¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXLTGOVTX-26-GOP
Aug 8, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
79¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$11K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXLTGOVTX-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
79 / 85¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as the Lieutenant Governor of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXLTGOVTX-26-GOP
Event family
KXLTGOVTX-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Dan Patrick 79¢
Current share
—
Dan Patrick
kalshi · KXLTGOVTX-26-GOP
Vikki Goodwin
kalshi · KXLTGOVTX-26-DEM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.