SimpleFunctions

Sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals above 175000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Above 175 million is priced at 18¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 32¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 1.

Price history

18¢ current

−10¢
0¢25¢
Aug 21, 2026Sep 19, 2026

Contract brief

If the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals is above 175 million for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 175 million

Rank

#4 of 5

Leader

Above 180 million 19¢

Range

2¢-19¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A175000000

Sep 20, 2026, 1:51 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

18¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Sep 20, 2026, 1:51 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

2¢

Ask

34¢

Spread

32¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#4 of 5

5 outcomes · Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 1

Closes

Jan 8, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 34¢

Kalshi
32¢ spread
BidSize
100¢50
2¢68
AskSize
34¢200
68¢42
97¢200
98¢5.0K
99¢66

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals is above 175 million for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 8, 2027

Identifier

KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A175000000

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 1.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Above 180 million 19¢

Current share

—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.