Before August 2026 · KXWATSONRNC
Before August 2026 is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 87¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
87¢ current
+23¢Contract brief
If the Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules before Aug 1, 2026 that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received (and counted) after Election Day, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before August 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXWATSONRNC
Jun 24, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules before Aug 1, 2026 that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received (and counted) after Election Day, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXWATSONRNC
Event family
KXWATSONRNC.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before August 2026 87¢
Current share
100%
Before August 2026
kalshi · KXWATSONRNC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.