Unadjusted total residential benchmark price for the City of Calgary in 2026 fall below C$550,000
Below C$550,000 is priced at 63¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 62¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
63¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If the unadjusted total residential benchmark price for the City of Calgary in 2026 is below C$550,000 in any Calgary Real Estate Board monthly housing statistics release covering January 2026 through December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Below C$550,000
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCALHOME-27JAN15-T550
Jun 27, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
62¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 15, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
62 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the unadjusted total residential benchmark price for the City of Calgary in 2026 is below C$550,000 in any Calgary Real Estate Board monthly housing statistics release covering January 2026 through December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 15, 2027
Identifier
KXCALHOME-27JAN15-T550
Event family
KXCALHOME-27JAN15.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Below C$550,000 62¢
Current share
—
Below C$550,000
kalshi · KXCALHOME-27JAN15-T550
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 63% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.