United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 above -7.5% of GDP
Above -7.5% of GDP is priced at 43¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 40¢ bid, 46¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above.
Price history
43¢ current
−15¢Contract brief
If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -7.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above -7.5% of GDP
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
Above -9.0% of GDP 91¢
Range
2¢-91¢
Family volume
$8
Identifier
KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-7.5
Sep 20, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
46¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$11K
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above
Closes
Apr 20, 2027
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 46¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -7.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 20, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-7.5
Event family
Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above -9.0% of GDP 91¢
Current share
100%
Above -9.0% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-9.0
Above -8.5% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-8.5
Above -8.0% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-8.0
Above -7.5% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-7.5
Above -7.0% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-7.0
Above -6.0% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-6.0
Above -6.5% of GDP
kalshi · KXGOVBAL-27APR20-T-6.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.