5.25 or above · Will the USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5
5.25 or above is priced at 71¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 40¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will the USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.
Price history
71¢ current
+30¢Contract brief
If the USD/BRL rises above 5.2499 before Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
5.25 or above
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
5.25 or above 31¢
Range
1¢-31¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.2499
Jul 11, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
40¢
Reported volume
$174
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 71¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the USD/BRL rises above 5.2499 before Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.2499
Event family
Will the USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
6
Highest price
5.25 or above 31¢
Current share
0%
5.25 or above
kalshi · KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.2499
5.3 or above
kalshi · KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.2999
5.35 or above
kalshi · KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.3499
5.4 or above
kalshi · KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.3999
5.45 or above
kalshi · KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.4499
5.5 or above
kalshi · KXUSDBRLMAXM-26JUL31-T5.4999
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 71% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.