Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
Contract brief
If Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court for any action related to the Capitol Attack on January 6, 2021, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
KXJAN6CASES
Sep 17, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court for any action related to the Capitol Attack on January 6, 2021, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXJAN6CASES
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court 17¢
Current share
100%
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court
kalshi · KXJAN6CASES
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.