Before January 20, 2029 · Will Trump buy Greenland?: Before
Before January 20, 2029 is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Trump buy Greenland?: Before.
Price history
23¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before January 20, 2029
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before January 20, 2029 20¢
Range
7¢-20¢
Family volume
$523
Identifier
KXGREENLAND-29
Jun 26, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$461
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Trump buy Greenland?: Before
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$523
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXGREENLAND-29
Event family
Will Trump buy Greenland?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$523
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before January 20, 2029 20¢
Current share
88%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.