Will Trump buy Greenland
Leader sits at 9% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before January 20, 2029
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Before 2027
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$69K
liquid
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
853 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump buy Greenland
Analysis
This market reflects a 17% probability that the U.S. government will complete an acquisition of Greenland before January 20, 2029. The current level suggests traders view such a purchase as unlikely but not negligible given stated interest from the Trump administration. The probability would rise with explicit policy announcements, legislative action, or serious negotiations with Denmark; it would fall if officials distance themselves from the proposal or Denmark categorically rejects discussions. The most immediate catalyst is whether the administration pursues formal diplomatic channels or acquires political support in Congress—outcomes that could shift pricing substantially. A shorter-dated contract showing only 4% probability before 2027 indicates markets expect any purchase, if it occurs, to happen later in the presidential term. Resolution ultimately depends on whether actual negotiations materialize and, if so, whether they succeed.
- ›Trump administration officials have publicly discussed Greenland acquisition; market pricing reflects whether this remains rhetorical or translates into formal policy
- ›Denmark retains sovereignty and has stated opposition to selling; any purchase requires Danish government cooperation or extraordinary geopolitical circumstances
- ›No binding legal or constitutional mechanism exists for U.S. territorial acquisition from allies; legislative action would be required
- ›The 13-percentage-point spread between the 2027 and 2029 deadlines suggests most trader probability mass concentrates in years 2-3 of the term
- ›Historical precedent for major territorial acquisitions between developed allies is absent in modern era, constraining baseline expectations
What moved the line
- Sep 19Before January 20, 2029↓6pp16→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before January 20, 2029↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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