Will Trump buy Greenland
Leader sits at 20% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before January 20, 2029
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Before 2027
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
940 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump buy Greenland
Analysis
The 25% probability reflects traders' assessment that Trump will successfully acquire Greenland during his current term. This outcome would require sustained political commitment, Danish cooperation or pressure, Congressional approval, and likely substantial financial or diplomatic negotiation. The probability remains relatively low because Greenland is a Danish autonomous territory with its own government, and formal sovereignty transfer faces constitutional and international barriers. Key factors driving the price include Trump's public statements about Greenland acquisition, movement toward concrete policy proposals or budget requests, and signals from Danish or Greenlandic leadership regarding openness to discussions. The main uncertainty centers on whether Trump pursues this as serious policy versus rhetorical positioning. Developments before end-2026 would indicate if acquisition moves from stated interest to actionable negotiations.
- ›Trump administration makes a formal acquisition proposal or includes Greenland purchase in official policy documents or budget submissions
- ›Danish government or Greenland's local government publicly signals willingness to negotiate sovereignty or significant autonomy changes
- ›U.S. Congress allocates funding or passes legislation supporting an acquisition attempt
- ›Trump publicly emphasizes Greenland acquisition as a priority in speeches or policy announcements beyond one-off comments
- ›No formal discussions or policy mechanisms are established by Q4 2026, suggesting the idea remains aspirational rather than operational
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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