Before 2029 · KXCAPCONTROL-29
Before 2029 is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the United States has imposed new capital controls in an attempt to limit capital from leaving the United States and going to any country (as opposed to on one specific country) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2029
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCAPCONTROL-29
Aug 20, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has imposed new capital controls in an attempt to limit capital from leaving the United States and going to any country (as opposed to on one specific country) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXCAPCONTROL-29
Event family
KXCAPCONTROL-29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before 2029 17¢
Current share
—
Before 2029
kalshi · KXCAPCONTROL-29
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Limit orders on Kalshi: why thesis-informed makers outperform blind spread collectors
How thesis-informed limit orders on Kalshi outperform blind spread collecting. Real orderbook examples with KXWTIMAX and KXRECSSNBER tickers, fill probability math, and catalyst timing.
The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity
Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 17% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.