Trump post on Truth Social between 2:00 AM and 2:59 AM ET this week
2-3 AM is priced at 58¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 76¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will Trump post on Truth Social between.
Price history
58¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If the number of Trump Truth Social posts is above 0 during 2:00 AM to 2:59 AM ET on any day from Jul 12, 2026 through Jul 18, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
2-3 AM
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
3-4 AM 99¢
Range
11¢-99¢
Family volume
$26K
Identifier
KXTRUMPTIME-26JUL18-H2
Jul 12, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
76¢
24h volume
$67
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Will Trump post on Truth Social between
Closes
Jul 18, 2026
Family volume
$26K
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of Trump Truth Social posts is above 0 during 2:00 AM to 2:59 AM ET on any day from Jul 12, 2026 through Jul 18, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 18, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPTIME-26JUL18-H2
Event family
Will Trump post on Truth Social between.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$26K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
3-4 AM 99¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.