What is the current probability for "Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 64.5% and 319.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight this year?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $472 open interest, making the 68¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 69/80¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $40.2·OI $1,744.37·Closes Jan 8, 2027·254d remaining

KXFURYJOSHUA-26-YES

7-day price117 snapshots · 15 regime

73¢69¢ current

Apr 112¢Apr 29

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $472 open interest, making the 68¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (91.3% for Yes vs. 205.3% for No) and recent sharp 58¢ price surge from 2¢ suggest either a significant news catalyst or thin-book volatility rather than fundamental repricing. With 267 days to expiry and a wide 6¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus probability.

Resolution rules

If Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua compete in a sanctioned boxing match between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 64.5%

IY (No) 319.6%

Adj IY 160%

CRI 2

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	64.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	319.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	160%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 10:57:18 AM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 10:53:26 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFURYJOSHUA-26-YES yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →