Ulf Kristersson · KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13
Ulf Kristersson is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13.
Price history
11¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Ulf Kristersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ulf Kristersson
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Magdalena Andersson 92¢
Range
1¢-92¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13-UKRI
Sep 21, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ulf Kristersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13-UKRI
Event family
KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Magdalena Andersson 92¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
none
Event type
political
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 11% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.