United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 above -2.0%
Above -2.0% is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above.
Price history
96¢ current
+47¢Contract brief
If the United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above -2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above -2.0%
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Above -2.0% 95¢
Range
3¢-95¢
Family volume
$17
Identifier
KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T-2.0
Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
95¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Family volume
$17
Orderbook snapshot
95 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above -2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Identifier
KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T-2.0
Event family
Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above -2.0% 95¢
Current share
65%
Above -2.0%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T-2.0
Above -1.5%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T-1.5
Above -1.0%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T-1.0
Above 0.0%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T0.0
Above 0.5%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T0.5
Above 1.0%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T1.0
Above 1.5%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T1.5
Above 2.0%
kalshi · KXUKRETAIL-26JUL24-T2.0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.