U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime Day 2026 at least $22 billion
At least $22 billion is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 98¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside Will U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime Day 2026 be at least $.
Price history
98¢ current
+95¢Contract brief
If Adobe Analytics reports that the U.S. online spend across retailers for the Prime Day 2026 event, from June 23, 2026 through June 26, 2026 is at least $22 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least $22 billion
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
At least $20 billion 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T22
Jun 26, 2026, 12:34 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
98¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · Will U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime Day 2026 be at least $
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
98 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Adobe Analytics reports that the U.S. online spend across retailers for the Prime Day 2026 event, from June 23, 2026 through June 26, 2026 is at least $22 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Identifier
KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T22
Event family
Will U.S. online spend across retailers for Prime Day 2026 be at least $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least $20 billion 99¢
Current share
11%
At least $20 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T20
At least $22 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T22
At least $24 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T24
At least $26 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T26
At least $28 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T28
At least $30 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T30
At least $32 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T32
At least $34 billion
kalshi · KXPRIMESPEND-26JUN27-T34
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.