Before 2029 · KXBANTRANS-26
Before 2029 is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
36¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If US Supreme Court rules ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2029
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXBANTRANS-26
Jun 23, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If US Supreme Court rules ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXBANTRANS-26
Event family
KXBANTRANS-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before 2029 36¢
Current share
100%
Before 2029
kalshi · KXBANTRANS-26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 36% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.