Will US test scores in Reading decline
Significant increase is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will US test scores in Reading decline.
Price history
14¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If US average test scores for eighth graders experienced Significant increase in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Significant increase
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Significant decrease 48¢
Range
10¢-48¢
Family volume
$92
Identifier
KXUSTESTSREADING-26-SI
Jun 23, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will US test scores in Reading decline
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$92
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If US average test scores for eighth graders experienced Significant increase in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXUSTESTSREADING-26-SI
Event family
Will US test scores in Reading decline.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$92
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Significant decrease 48¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.