Will US test scores in Reading decline
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Significant decrease
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
No significant difference
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$26
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
554 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US test scores in Reading decline
Will US test scores in Reading decline?: Significant decrease
KXUSTESTSREADING-26-SD
Will US test scores in Reading decline?: Significant increase
KXUSTESTSREADING-26-SI
Will US test scores in Reading decline?: No significant difference
KXUSTESTSREADING-26-NSD
Analysis
This market estimates a 63% probability that US reading test scores will decline by 2026. The current pricing reflects heightened concern about educational performance, driven primarily by pandemic-related learning loss recovery patterns and recent state assessment results. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the release of 2026 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results or comparable state-level standardized testing data, expected in late 2026 or early 2027. The outcome hinges on whether schools have successfully reversed pandemic disruptions or face continued performance degradation.
- ›Pandemic learning loss recovery trajectory: whether schools have offset 2020-2023 learning setbacks or momentum has stalled
- ›Recent NAEP and state assessment trend lines from 2024-2025 school year showing month-over-month or year-over-year reading performance direction
- ›Demographic shifts in test-taking population and composition changes that affect aggregate score comparability
- ›Teacher workforce stability and retention rates, which correlate with instructional consistency
- ›Definitional scope: whether decline is measured as absolute score drop, percentage-point change, or performance band migration
What moved the line
- Jun 22Significant decrease↑10pp38→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22No significant difference↓4pp43→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Significant decrease↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24No significant difference↑3pp38→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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