SimpleFunctions

UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 above 3.20%

Above 3.20% is priced at 86¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 72¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 27¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above.

Open on KalshiView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

86¢ current

−7¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Jun 10, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 3.20%

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Above 3.10% 76¢

Range

1¢-76¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.20

Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 12m ago

Implied probability

86¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 12m ago

Bid

72¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

27¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

72 / 99¢

Kalshi
27¢ spread
BidSize
72¢91
69¢10
32¢51
31¢101
30¢164
AskSize
99¢10

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.20

SF Signal
SF Index
16904.27
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$4K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Above 3.10% 76¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Above 3.10%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.10

76¢
$0$0—

Above 3.20%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.20

72¢
$0$0—

Above 3.30%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.30

72¢
$0$0—

Above 3.00%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.00

67¢
$0$0—

Above 3.50%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.50

66¢
$0$0—

Above 3.60%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.60

64¢
$0$0—

Above 3.40%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.40

63¢
$0$0—

Above 3.80%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.80

61¢
$0$0—

Above 4.00%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.00

56¢
$0$0—

Above 3.90%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.90

55¢
$0$0—

Above 4.10%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.10

54¢
$3K$3K—

Above 3.70%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.70

53¢
$0$0—

Above 4.30%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.30

2¢
$1K$1K—

Above 4.40%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.40

1¢
$400$400—

Above 4.20%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.20

1¢
$242$242—

Above 4.50%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.50

1¢
$0$0—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

2

VR

3.33

IAR

0.4/h

Overround

6.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

CRI
2
VR
3.33
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
6.7%

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Event Probability API

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.