SimpleFunctions

Walker Kessler · KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28

Walker Kessler is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28.

Price history

14¢ current

+13¢
0¢10¢
Jun 28, 2026Jul 11, 2026

Contract brief

If Walker Kessler is selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Walker Kessler

Rank

#16 of 16

Leader

Anthony Edwards 92¢

Range

7¢-92¢

Family volume

$738

Identifier

KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28-WKESSLER24

Jul 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 42m ago

Implied probability

14¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 42m ago

Bid

Ask

15¢

Spread

Reported volume

$266

Family rank

#16 of 16

16 outcomes · KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28

Closes

Jul 31, 2028

Family volume

$738

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 15¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
7¢10
6¢5
AskSize
15¢10
56¢13
58¢50
99¢25

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Walker Kessler is selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 31, 2028

Identifier

KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28-WKESSLER24

SF Signal
SF Index
322.91
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

645.8%

IY (No)

3.7%

Adj IY

323%

CRI

13

Overround

12.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

645.8%
3.7%
Adj IY
323%
13
Overround
12.3%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.