What is the current probability for "Will William Byron be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 15, 2026. 208 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will William Byron be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3338.6% and 9.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will William Byron be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will William Byron be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will William Byron be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2026. William Byron's championship odds are priced at a depressed 7¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $81,899 in open interest, suggesting stale pricing or limited recent trading activity.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/6¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $25·OI $82,585·Closes Nov 15, 2026·208d remaining

KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-WBYR

7-day price61 snapshots · 8 regime

7¢5¢ current

Apr 125¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

William Byron's championship odds are priced at a depressed 7¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $81,899 in open interest, suggesting stale pricing or limited recent trading activity. The extreme 2690% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of long-shot bets, though the modest 1¢ spread indicates reasonable liquidity at current levels. The price has declined 1¢ over seven days in a neutral regime with 213 days to expiry, suggesting either deteriorating odds or market indifference rather than active repricing.

Resolution rules

If William Byron wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3338.6%

IY (No) 9.2%

Adj IY 1669%

CRI 19

Overround -0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3338.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1669%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:39:26 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-WBYR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →