William Lawrence · KXMIPRIMARY-07D26
William Lawrence is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside KXMIPRIMARY-07D26.
Price history
17¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If William Lawrence wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
William Lawrence
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Bridget Brink 82¢
Range
5¢-82¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXMIPRIMARY-07D26-WLAW
Jun 25, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$403
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · KXMIPRIMARY-07D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If William Lawrence wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIPRIMARY-07D26-WLAW
Event family
KXMIPRIMARY-07D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Bridget Brink 82¢
Current share
28%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.