SimpleFunctions

Yoshinobu Yamamoto · KXMLBNLCY-26

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXMLBNLCY-26.

Price history

1¢ current

0¢5¢
Jul 28, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If Yoshinobu Yamamoto wins the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Jacob Misiorowski 90¢

Range

1¢-90¢

Family volume

$982

Identifier

KXMLBNLCY-26-YYAM

Aug 26, 2026, 6:49 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 26, 2026, 6:49 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$201K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · KXMLBNLCY-26

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

Family volume

$982

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
2¢41K
3¢1.1K
4¢20
5¢20
100¢1.7K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Yoshinobu Yamamoto wins the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBNLCY-26-YYAM

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.