Zach Lahn receive between 35% and 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary
35% - 40% is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 98¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will Zach Lahn receive.
Price history
99¢ current
+98¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Zach Lahn in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary is 35% to 39.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
35% - 40%
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
35% - 40% 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$193
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-37
Jun 28, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
98¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$49K
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Zach Lahn receive
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$193
Orderbook snapshot
98 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Zach Lahn in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary is 35% to 39.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-37
Event family
Will Zach Lahn receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$193
Outcomes
7
Highest price
35% - 40% 98¢
Current share
0%
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-37
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-70
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-32
15% - 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-17
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-22
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-27
Below 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVIANOMR26ZLAHZLAH-7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.