DATASET·Hugging Face·CC-BY-4.0
Settled Markets (Hugging Face)
Monthly partitions of every settled Kalshi + Polymarket market with outcome + predicted price
Ground-truth dataset for calibration and forecasting research. Each row has:
- venue, ticker, title, category
- predicted price at settlement
- predicted price 24h before settlement
- resolved outcome (0 or 1)
- resolved_at timestamp
Monthly partitions, each ~10-50K rows. Updated daily at 00:10 UTC — the current month and previous month refresh (to catch late resolutions); older months are immutable.
Natural uses: Brier calibration studies, time-horizon forecasting research, regime dependence analysis.
Tags
datasethuggingfacecalibrationforecastingbrier
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- DATASET·CC-BY-4.0Settled Markets (Kaggle mirror)Every settled Kalshi + Polymarket market, monthly partitions — on Kaggle
- DATASET·CC-BY-4.0Calibration Scorecards (Hugging Face)Monthly Brier + log-loss breakdowns for Kalshi + Polymarket