DATASET·Hugging Face·CC-BY-4.0

Settled Markets (Hugging Face)

Monthly partitions of every settled Kalshi + Polymarket market with outcome + predicted price

Ground-truth dataset for calibration and forecasting research. Each row has:

  • venue, ticker, title, category
  • predicted price at settlement
  • predicted price 24h before settlement
  • resolved outcome (0 or 1)
  • resolved_at timestamp

Monthly partitions, each ~10-50K rows. Updated daily at 00:10 UTC — the current month and previous month refresh (to catch late resolutions); older months are immutable.

Natural uses: Brier calibration studies, time-horizon forecasting research, regime dependence analysis.

Tags

datasethuggingfacecalibrationforecastingbrier

Related