Brandon Stone leads at the end of Round 1

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 65 constituent markets, with every market sharing a uniform 17-day tenor. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities cluster tightly around 1.0% to 2.0%, with only three outliers: RNEE trades at 15.0%, while CCHA, ELOP, and NNRG each trade at 3.0%. The overwhelming majority of markets—approximately 50 of 65—price YES at exactly 1.0%, establishing this as the modal probability across the event family. The cheapest YES probabilities are concentrated at 1.0%, representing the baseline market consensus, while the highest-probability markets (RNEE at 15.0%) command significantly elevated prices relative to peers. Volume distribution is highly uneven, with LBJE, GDEL, OGUI, and RHOJ each exceeding $7,000 in 24-hour volume, while many markets show minimal trading activity below $100. The flat curve structure and compressed probability range indicate the market views this event as highly unlikely to occur within the 17-day window, with minimal differentiation in timing expectations across outcomes. The market is essentially pricing a near-zero baseline probability (~1%) for most scenarios, suggesting either a low-probability event or one with resolution mechanics that make near-term occurrence improbable. The concentration of volume in specific markets—particularly LBJE, GDEL, OGUI, and RHOJ—suggests informed traders are selectively positioning in certain outcomes rather than broadly hedging across the family. The absence of any longer-dated tenor markets means the curve provides no information about market expectations beyond 17 days, leaving the full probability distribution across extended timeframes op