Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced steepening pattern across the two tenor buckets, with the 52-day October 26 contracts trading substantially cheaper than their 144-day counterparts. At the 52-day tenor, probabilities cluster tightly in the 2–15% range, with Sudan as the outlier at 31%. The 144-day bucket shows a systematic upward shift, with most countries rising 4–8 percentage points and Sudan jumping to 51%. Sudan dominates both tenors but shows the steepest curve slope at 20 percentage points, while lower-probability countries like Angola, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic show more modest 6–8 point increases. The cheapest YES probabilities reside at the 52-day tenor, particularly for India, Somalia, and Chile at 2–3%, compared to their 11–13% levels at 144 days. This steep upward-sloping curve signals that the market expects Ebola case emergence in these countries to be unlikely in the near term but increasingly probable over the medium horizon. The market is not pricing imminent outbreak risk; rather, it reflects growing cumulative probability of detection as time extends. Sudan's exceptional positioning—31% near-term and 51% at 144 days—suggests it is viewed as the highest-risk jurisdiction, yet even there the market assigns only a one-in-three chance within 52 days. The flattening of spreads for lower-probability countries and the consistent upward shift across all geographies indicates the market views the event family as a slow-burn risk that accumulates gradually rather than a near-term crisis scenario.