Ethiopia · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Ethiopia is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
24¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ethiopia
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
South Sudan 72¢
Range
15¢-72¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ETHI
May 27, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ETHI
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
South Sudan 72¢
Current share
0%
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SUD
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-BUR
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-RWA
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-IND
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-USA
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAR
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-TANZ
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ZAMB
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ANG
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-DOC
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAN
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ETHI
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CHI
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-NIGE
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SOMA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.