CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern across the three tenor buckets, with the August 26 bucket (34 days) serving as the cheapest YES probability zone. August contracts cluster tightly around 2-11%, with the modal probability near 5-7%, while September 26 contracts (67 days) jump significantly to 16-17% at their peaks, and November 26 contracts (124 days) settle into a narrow 4-9% band. This dramatic repricing between August and September—roughly a 2-3x probability increase—creates a sharp upward slope that then moderates into November. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the August bucket, particularly at the extreme thresholds (T2.0-T2.3 at 5.0% and T3.1, T3.3, T3.6-T3.8 at 2-3%), suggesting minimal market conviction for outcomes at those specific inflation levels in the near term. The curve's shape reveals that market participants expect the event outcome to materialize primarily in the September window rather than August, with probabilities concentrated around the 3.0-3.5% threshold range where September contracts peak at 16-17%. The flattening into November suggests either resolution uncertainty or a view that if the event doesn't occur by September, the probability of occurrence by November stabilizes at a lower, more uniform level. The steepness of the August-to-September transition indicates the market is pricing in meaningful information arrival or data release between these dates—likely the August CPI print itself—which would resolve much of the current uncertainty. The relatively flat November curve across most thresholds suggests limited tail-risk repricing for longer-dated outcomes.