SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 32 thresholds.

32 live Kalshi contracts (70 audited). Median implied probability sits at 4%. 2 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCPIYOY.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATCPIYOY
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATCPIYOY
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATCPIYOY",
    "label": "CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 32,
    "volume24hSum": 7.57,
    "hasThesisCount": 2
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-594.0
Vol Flow$8-99%
min $0max $547
Breadth—
warming up — first reading at 07:00 UTC
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 07:00 UTC
Aug 16past 7d · UTCAug 23 · 06:23

Live contracts

32

Median IY

4¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$8

Days to catalyst

23

min daysToEvent

SF thesis coverage

2

Bucket count

32

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 32 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 1.8pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 3.062.12.52.83.13.34.5cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 32

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.4%37¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge +3¢RVol 226%Resid 0$8thesis ◆
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.3%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.6%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.8%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.9%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.0%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.1%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.2%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.3%21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge +24¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.5%15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.5%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.1%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.2%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.3%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.4%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.5%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.6%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.7%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.8%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.9%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
32 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Aug 2026 06:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCPIYOY →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →