SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 63 thresholds.

63 live Kalshi contracts (70 audited). Median implied probability sits at 5%. 24 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.9 -12c). 5 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCPIYOY.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATCPIYOY
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATCPIYOY
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATCPIYOY",
    "label": "CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 63,
    "volume24hSum": 10606.24,
    "hasThesisCount": 5
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$10.6K+143%
min $871max $10.7K
Breadth-50%+50.0pp
min -100%max 20%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:15 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 20:23

Live contracts

63

Median IY

5¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$10.6K

Days to catalyst

18

min daysToEvent

SF thesis coverage

5

Bucket count

62

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 63 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 0.8pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 3.2922.73.13.43.84.5cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 63

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid +2$7.6K
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.7%26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid +3$1.7K
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.9%14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid +2$865
CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.5%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge +30¢RVol —Resid —$201thesis ◆
CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.6%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$201
CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 3.5%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.2%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.3%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.5%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.0%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.5%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.6%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.7%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.8%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 2.9%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.2%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.3%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.4%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.5%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.8%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
63 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

From market_changes
22h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.9%
6¢18→6 (-12)
open →
23h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.9%
19¢8→19 (+11)
open →
17h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
39¢49→39 (-10)
open →
16h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
39¢49→39 (-10)
open →
4h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
48¢39→48 (+9)
open →
23h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
38¢46→38 (-8)
open →
15h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
38¢46→38 (-8)
open →
18h agoKalshi
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
39¢47→39 (-8)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 21:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCPIYOY →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →