Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -6.0% of GDP

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern across all country buckets, with the lowest YES probabilities clustered at the shortest tenors and rising sharply toward intermediate maturities before plateauing at longer tenors. Within each country cohort, the cheapest YES probabilities occur at the lowest strike levels: Japan at 0.5T (3%), Italy at 1.5T (3%), Germany at 2.0T (2%), France at 3.5T (2%), Canada at 6.5T (3%), GB at 2.5T (3%), and the base US contract at 6.0T (2%). This consistent pattern of low-probability tails at short tenors reflects market skepticism about extreme outcomes materializing immediately. The steepness intensifies dramatically in the 1-3 tenor range for most countries, where probabilities jump 10-50 percentage points, before moderating into a flatter plateau above 4-5T where probabilities typically range 80-97%. The shape strongly suggests the market expects the event outcome to resolve within a moderate timeframe rather than at extremes. The steep rise from tail probabilities to 50-80% probability levels indicates concentrated conviction around specific strike ranges: the US market clusters around 7.5-8.0T (60-86%), Germany around 4.0-4.5T (20-86%), France around 5.0-5.5T (26-81%), and Japan around 2.0-2.5T (57-84%). The subsequent flattening at higher strikes reflects diminishing marginal probability mass, suggesting the market assigns low likelihood to outcomes substantially exceeding these central estimates. Overall, the curve's architecture reveals a market pricing in a well-defined, near-