Will Alaves win La Liga
event base · KXLALIGA
Outcome probabilities
19 contracts at one resolution date
Analysis
The Will Alaves win La Liga slate has 19 mutually-exclusive contracts, all resolving on a single date. The current top-probability outcome is Barcelona at 58.0%.
A bespoke narrative analysis is generated by an LLM on a 24h cron. If this paragraph is showing instead, the slate has either just appeared in the index or has not yet been queued.
Constituent markets
19 kalshi contracts
| Market | Tenor | P(YES) | Vol 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona win La Liga?: Barcelona | 10mo | 58.0% | $817 |
| Will Real Madrid win La Liga?: Real Madrid | 10mo | 39.0% | $1.0K |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?: Atletico Madrid | 10mo | 3.0% | $5.3K |
| Will Real Sociedad win La Liga?: Real Sociedad | 10mo | 2.0% | $0 |
| Will Alaves win La Liga?: Alaves | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga?: Athletic Bilbao | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Deportivo De La Coruna win La Liga?: Deportivo De La Coruna | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Elche win La Liga?: Elche | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Espanyol win La Liga?: Espanyol | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Levante win La Liga?: Levante | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Malaga win the La Liga?: Malaga | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Osasuna win La Liga?: Osasuna | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Betis win La Liga?: Betis | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Celta Vigo win La Liga?: Celta Vigo | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Rayo Vallecano win La Liga?: Rayo Vallecano | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Racing Santander win La Liga?: Racing Santander | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Sevilla win La Liga?: Sevilla | 10mo | 1.0% | $468 |
| Will Valencia win La Liga?: Valencia | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Villarreal win La Liga?: Villarreal | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
How to read this page
An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.
Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXLALIGA on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.