Will Atlante win the Liga MX Apertura

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced steepening pattern, with the near-term 174-day tenor substantially outpricing the longer-dated 325-day tenor across nearly all constituent markets. At the 174-day bucket, YES probabilities cluster in the 1–24% range, with the highest concentrations at CDG and CRA (both 24%), while the 325-day bucket shows a marked compression toward the lower end, with most markets trading at 1–3% and only CRA reaching 22%. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 325-day tenor, where 14 of 18 markets are priced at exactly 1%, suggesting either minimal conviction or structural floor pricing. This inversion of typical term-structure expectations—where longer-dated events typically command higher probabilities—indicates the market is pricing a sharp decay in event likelihood as time extends. The steepening curve communicates a market view that if this event occurs, it will happen within the near-term 174-day window, with probabilities collapsing substantially beyond that horizon. The concentration of activity and higher prices at the April 27 resolution date (174 days) versus the June 27 date (325 days) suggests traders believe the event's window of opportunity is front-loaded and narrows significantly over time. The dramatic probability decay—often dropping from double digits or low double digits at 174 days to single digits or 1% at 325 days—implies the market is pricing either a specific catalyst window or a declining conditional probability structure, where the event becomes increasingly unlikely if it has not materialized within the nearer term.