SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate33 markets

Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 100 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026

event base · KXMELIA

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 10 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$0
Constituents
33
Distinct tenors
2
8mo – 18mo
Top P(YES)
98.0%
Above 3 billion

Outcome probabilities

33 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across both tenor buckets, with the near-term 287-day contracts consistently pricing higher YES probabilities than the longer-dated 599-day contracts. Within the 287-day bucket, probabilities range from 88% down to 1% across the strike spectrum, while the 599-day bucket spans 89% down to 2%. The cheapest YES probability appears in the longest-dated, highest-strike 599-day contract (KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3700000000.0) at just 2%, though the near-term bucket reaches similarly depressed levels at 1% for its furthest out-of-money strike. The steepness of the curve is most pronounced at lower strike levels, where the probability differential between tenors is most acute. This downward-sloping structure suggests the market expects mean reversion or convergence toward lower outcome values as time extends. The relatively compressed probability differences between the two tenor buckets at high strike levels (94% near-term versus 89% long-term for the lowest strikes) indicate high confidence in baseline scenarios, while the more dramatic divergence at mid-to-high strikes reveals uncertainty about tail outcomes. The market is essentially pricing in that extreme high-strike scenarios become progressively less likely the further out the resolution date, implying either a belief in stabilization around lower levels or increased uncertainty that dampens tail probabilities over longer horizons. The zero trading volume across all markets indicates these are indicative prices in a currently illiquid market.

Generated 8/10/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

33 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3 billion18mo98.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.05 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.05 billion18mo98.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.1 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.1 billion18mo98.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.15 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.15 billion18mo98.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.2 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.2 billion18mo95.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $87 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $87 billion8mo93.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.25 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.25 billion18mo91.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.3 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.3 billion18mo89.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $88 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $88 billion8mo87.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 96 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 96 million8mo86.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 97 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 97 million8mo79.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $89 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $89 billion8mo77.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.35 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.35 billion18mo77.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 98 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 98 million8mo70.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.4 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.4 billion18mo64.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $90 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $90 billion8mo61.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 99 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 99 million8mo58.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 100 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 100 million8mo45.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $91 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $91 billion8mo41.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.45 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.45 billion18mo40.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 101 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 101 million8mo32.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.5 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.5 billion18mo26.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $92 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $92 billion8mo22.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 102 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 102 million8mo20.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.55 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.55 billion18mo12.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 103 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 103 million8mo11.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $93 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $93 billion8mo9.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.6 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.6 billion18mo7.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.65 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.65 billion18mo5.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 104 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 104 million8mo4.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.7 billion items sold in 2026?: Above 3.7 billion18mo3.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $94 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $94 billion8mo2.0%$0
Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $95 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $95 billion8mo2.0%$0

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXMELIA on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:24:03 GMT.