SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate53 markets

Will Jaylen Brown win MVP

event base · KXNBAMVP

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 18 Jul 2026Methodology
24h volume
$37.2K
Constituents
53
Distinct tenors
1
—
Top P(YES)
28.0%
Victor Wembanyama

Outcome probabilities

53 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a completely flat structure across all 53 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical tenor of 713 days to resolution. This uniformity eliminates the traditional ability to observe steepening or flattening dynamics. However, within this single tenor bucket, there exists substantial dispersion in YES probabilities, ranging from a floor of 1.0% for the majority of markets to peaks of 33.0% for VWEMBANYAMA1, 15.0% for both LDONCIC77 and SGILGEOUSALEXANDER2, and 13.0% for NJOKIC15. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, representing 41 of the 53 markets, while only a handful of contracts command elevated probabilities above 5.0%. The flat tenor structure indicates that this event family lacks intermediate resolution points—the market is essentially pricing a single binary outcome occurring approximately 713 days forward with no interim milestones. The concentration of 1.0% floor prices across most markets suggests these represent tail-risk scenarios with minimal conviction. Conversely, the elevated probabilities for select names like Wembanyama (33.0%), Doncic (15.0%), and Jokic (13.0%) reveal where market participants concentrate their belief, likely reflecting baseline expectations or consensus favorites. The trading volume concentration—with JBRUNSON11 ($14,269.52), JTATUM0 ($1,810.16), and GANTETOKOUNMPO34 ($1,371.03) dominating activity—further highlights which outcomes attract genuine capital allocation despite the uniform temporal structure.

Generated 7/18/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

53 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP?: Victor Wembanyama21mo28.0%$541
Will Luka Doncic win MVP?: Luka Doncic21mo16.0%$756
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP?: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander21mo15.0%$45
Will Nikola Jokić win MVP?: Nikola Jokić21mo12.0%$7
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win MVP?: Giannis Antetokounmpo21mo8.0%$2.0K
Will Anthony Edwards win MVP?: Anthony Edwards21mo7.0%$4.1K
Will Jayson Tatum win MVP?: Jayson Tatum21mo4.0%$1.6K
Will Cade Cunningham win MVP?: Cade Cunningham21mo2.0%$2.2K
Will Jalen Brunson win MVP?: Jalen Brunson21mo2.0%$1.6K
Will Jaylen Brown win MVP?: Jaylen Brown21mo1.0%$99
Will Scottie Barnes win MVP?: Scottie Barnes21mo1.0%$0
Will Tyler Herro win MVP?: Tyler Herro21mo1.0%$0
Will Tyrese Maxey win MVP?: Tyrese Maxey21mo1.0%$10.4K
Will Zion Williamson win MVP?: Zion Williamson21mo1.0%$0
Will Trae Young win MVP?: Trae Young21mo1.0%$0
Will Tie/Co-Winners win MVP?: Tie/Co-Winners21mo1.0%$0
Will Deni Avdija win MVP?: Deni Avdija21mo1.0%$0
Will Anthony Davis win MVP?: Anthony Davis21mo1.0%$0
Will Amen Thompson win MVP?: Amen Thompson21mo1.0%$0
Will Stephen Curry win MVP?: Stephen Curry21mo1.0%$0
Will LeBron James win MVP?: LeBron James21mo1.0%$266
Will Kevin Durant win MVP?: Kevin Durant21mo1.0%$0
Will Austin Reaves win MVP?: Austin Reaves21mo1.0%$0
Will Alperen Sengun win MVP?: Alperen Sengun21mo1.0%$0
Will Devin Booker win MVP?: Devin Booker21mo1.0%$0
Will James Harden win MVP?: James Harden21mo1.0%$0
Will Donovan Mitchell win MVP?: Donovan Mitchell21mo1.0%$0
Will Chet Holmgren win MVP?: Chet Holmgren21mo1.0%$0
Will Jalen Williams win MVP?: Jalen Williams21mo1.0%$0
Will Dylan Harper win MVP?: Dylan Harper21mo1.0%$0
Will Stephon Castle win MVP?: Stephon Castle21mo1.0%$0
Will Derrick White win MVP?: Derrick White21mo1.0%$0
Will Evan Mobley win MVP?: Evan Mobley21mo1.0%$0
Will Jarrett Allen win MVP?: Jarrett Allen21mo1.0%$0
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win MVP?: Karl-Anthony Towns21mo1.0%$0
Will OG Anunoby win MVP?: OG Anunoby21mo1.0%$0
Will Mikal Bridges win MVP?: Mikal Bridges21mo1.0%$0
Will Jimmy Butler win MVP?: Jimmy Butler21mo1.0%$0
Will Joel Embiid win MVP?: Joel Embiid21mo1.0%$100
Will VJ Edgecombe win MVP?: VJ Edgecombe21mo1.0%$0
Will Jalen Green win MVP?: Jalen Green21mo1.0%$0
Will Ivica Zubac win MVP?: Ivica Zubac21mo1.0%$0
Will Tyrese Haliburton win MVP?: Tyrese Haliburton21mo1.0%$0
Will Jalen Johnson win MVP?: Jalen Johnson21mo1.0%$0
Will Cooper Flagg win MVP?: Cooper Flagg21mo1.0%$3.5K
Will LaMelo Ball win MVP?: LaMelo Ball21mo1.0%$10.0K
Will Kon Knueppel win MVP?: Kon Knueppel21mo1.0%$0
Will Jamal Murray win MVP?: Jamal Murray21mo1.0%$0
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win MVP?: Jaren Jackson Jr.21mo1.0%$0
Will Julius Randle win MVP?: Julius Randle21mo1.0%$0
Will Paul George win MVP?: Paul George21mo1.0%$0
Will Paolo Banchero win MVP?: Paolo Banchero21mo1.0%$0
Will Pascal Siakam win MVP?: Pascal Siakam21mo1.0%$0

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNBAMVP on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sat, 18 Jul 2026 06:24:02 GMT.