SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate53 markets

Will Anthony Davis win MVP

event base · KXNBAMVP

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 18 Jul 2026Methodology
24h volume
$5.4K
Constituents
53
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
31.0%
Victor Wembanyama

Outcome probabilities

53 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a completely flat structure across all 53 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical tenor of 713 days to resolution. This uniformity eliminates the traditional ability to observe steepening or flattening dynamics. However, within this single tenor bucket, there exists substantial dispersion in YES probabilities, ranging from a floor of 1.0% for the majority of markets to peaks of 33.0% for VWEMBANYAMA1, 15.0% for both LDONCIC77 and SGILGEOUSALEXANDER2, and 13.0% for NJOKIC15. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, representing 41 of the 53 markets, while only a handful of contracts command elevated probabilities above 5.0%. The flat tenor structure indicates that this event family lacks intermediate resolution points—the market is essentially pricing a single binary outcome occurring approximately 713 days forward with no interim milestones. The concentration of 1.0% floor prices across most markets suggests these represent tail-risk scenarios with minimal conviction. Conversely, the elevated probabilities for select names like Wembanyama (33.0%), Doncic (15.0%), and Jokic (13.0%) reveal where market participants concentrate their belief, likely reflecting baseline expectations or consensus favorites. The trading volume concentration—with JBRUNSON11 ($14,269.52), JTATUM0 ($1,810.16), and GANTETOKOUNMPO34 ($1,371.03) dominating activity—further highlights which outcomes attract genuine capital allocation despite the uniform temporal structure.

Generated 7/18/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

53 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP?: Victor Wembanyama22mo31.0%$483
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP?: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander22mo17.0%$163
Will Luka Doncic win MVP?: Luka Doncic22mo15.0%$3.3K
Will Nikola Jokić win MVP?: Nikola Jokić22mo14.0%$116
Will Jayson Tatum win MVP?: Jayson Tatum22mo7.0%$0
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win MVP?: Giannis Antetokounmpo22mo6.0%$59
Will Anthony Edwards win MVP?: Anthony Edwards22mo4.0%$312
Will Jalen Brunson win MVP?: Jalen Brunson22mo4.0%$14
Will Cade Cunningham win MVP?: Cade Cunningham22mo2.0%$100
Will Jaylen Brown win MVP?: Jaylen Brown22mo2.0%$0
Will Anthony Davis win MVP?: Anthony Davis22mo1.0%$0
Will Austin Reaves win MVP?: Austin Reaves22mo1.0%$0
Will Alperen Sengun win MVP?: Alperen Sengun22mo1.0%$0
Will Amen Thompson win MVP?: Amen Thompson22mo1.0%$0
Will Cooper Flagg win MVP?: Cooper Flagg22mo1.0%$0
Will Chet Holmgren win MVP?: Chet Holmgren22mo1.0%$0
Will Deni Avdija win MVP?: Deni Avdija22mo1.0%$0
Will Devin Booker win MVP?: Devin Booker22mo1.0%$0
Will Dylan Harper win MVP?: Dylan Harper22mo1.0%$0
Will Donovan Mitchell win MVP?: Donovan Mitchell22mo1.0%$0
Will Derrick White win MVP?: Derrick White22mo1.0%$0
Will Evan Mobley win MVP?: Evan Mobley22mo1.0%$0
Will Ivica Zubac win MVP?: Ivica Zubac22mo1.0%$0
Will Jarrett Allen win MVP?: Jarrett Allen22mo1.0%$0
Will Jimmy Butler win MVP?: Jimmy Butler22mo1.0%$0
Will Joel Embiid win MVP?: Joel Embiid22mo1.0%$921
Will Jalen Green win MVP?: Jalen Green22mo1.0%$0
Will James Harden win MVP?: James Harden22mo1.0%$0
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win MVP?: Jaren Jackson Jr.22mo1.0%$0
Will Jalen Johnson win MVP?: Jalen Johnson22mo1.0%$0
Will Jamal Murray win MVP?: Jamal Murray22mo1.0%$0
Will Julius Randle win MVP?: Julius Randle22mo1.0%$0
Will Jalen Williams win MVP?: Jalen Williams22mo1.0%$0
Will Kevin Durant win MVP?: Kevin Durant22mo1.0%$0
Will Kon Knueppel win MVP?: Kon Knueppel22mo1.0%$0
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win MVP?: Karl-Anthony Towns22mo1.0%$0
Will LaMelo Ball win MVP?: LaMelo Ball22mo1.0%$0
Will LeBron James win MVP?: LeBron James22mo1.0%$0
Will Mikal Bridges win MVP?: Mikal Bridges22mo1.0%$0
Will OG Anunoby win MVP?: OG Anunoby22mo1.0%$0
Will Paolo Banchero win MVP?: Paolo Banchero22mo1.0%$0
Will Paul George win MVP?: Paul George22mo1.0%$0
Will Pascal Siakam win MVP?: Pascal Siakam22mo1.0%$0
Will Scottie Barnes win MVP?: Scottie Barnes22mo1.0%$0
Will Stephon Castle win MVP?: Stephon Castle22mo1.0%$0
Will Stephen Curry win MVP?: Stephen Curry22mo1.0%$0
Will Tyrese Haliburton win MVP?: Tyrese Haliburton22mo1.0%$0
Will Tyler Herro win MVP?: Tyler Herro22mo1.0%$0
Will Tie/Co-Winners win MVP?: Tie/Co-Winners22mo1.0%$0
Will Tyrese Maxey win MVP?: Tyrese Maxey22mo1.0%$0
Will Trae Young win MVP?: Trae Young22mo1.0%$0
Will VJ Edgecombe win MVP?: VJ Edgecombe22mo1.0%$0
Will Zion Williamson win MVP?: Zion Williamson22mo1.0%$0

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNBAMVP on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sat, 18 Jul 2026 06:24:02 GMT.