SimpleFunctions

Daniel Gafford · KXNBATRADE-27FEB12

Daniel Gafford is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 49¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXNBATRADE-27FEB12.

Price history

41¢ current

14¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jul 27, 2026Aug 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Daniel Gafford is traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Daniel Gafford

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Kawhi Leonard 71¢

Range

2¢-71¢

Family volume

$659

Identifier

KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DGAFFORD21

Aug 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 47m ago

Implied probability

41¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 47m ago

Bid

41¢

Ask

49¢

Spread

Reported volume

$200

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNBATRADE-27FEB12

Closes

Feb 12, 2027

Family volume

$659

Orderbook snapshot

41 / 49¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
41¢200
26¢90
12¢608
11¢57
5¢300
AskSize
50¢200
65¢90
96¢2.3K
97¢56

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Daniel Gafford is traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 12, 2027

Identifier

KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DGAFFORD21

SF Signal
SF Index
155.27
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

310.5%

IY (No)

150.0%

Adj IY

155%

CRI

1

Overround

13.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

310.5%
150.0%
Adj IY
155%
1
Overround
13.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.