SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate578 markets

What will be Anthony Davis's next team

event base · KXNEXTTEAMNBA

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 19 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$248.4K
Constituents
578
Distinct tenors
2
8w – 8w
Top P(YES)
99.0%
Minnesota

Outcome probabilities

578 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The prediction market exhibits a completely flat yield curve, with all 575 constituent markets sharing an identical 63-day tenor. This structural uniformity prevents traditional curve analysis, as there are no distinct tenor buckets to compare. Within this single tenor, YES probabilities cluster heavily at the 1.0% floor across most outcomes, with selective outliers showing elevated conviction: Adonis Davis to Washington at 93%, Austin Reaves to Los Angeles at 97%, Andrew Wiggins to Miami at 82%, and Bradley Beal to Los Angeles at 99%. The cheapest YES probabilities remain pinned at 1.0% across the majority of player-team combinations, suggesting these represent either genuine low-probability scenarios or liquidity-constrained pricing at the market's minimum threshold. The flat structure and compressed timeframe indicate the market is pricing a near-term resolution event occurring within approximately two months. The concentration of high probabilities on specific player-team pairs—particularly the 99% conviction on Beal to the Clippers and 97% on Reaves to the Lakers—suggests the market has identified likely outcomes with substantial certainty. The prevalence of 1.0% floor pricing across alternative outcomes reflects either genuine dismissal of those scenarios or insufficient trading activity to establish meaningful prices. Overall, the market's current posture suggests strong consensus around a discrete, imminent event with limited uncertainty about timing, though the lack of longer-dated markets prevents assessment of how conviction might evolve across different resolution horizons.

Generated 8/19/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

578 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
What will be Jonathan Kuminga's next team?: Minnesota8w99.0%$37.5K
What will be Austin Reaves's next team?: Los Angeles L8w98.0%$0
What will be Bradley Beal's next team?: Los Angeles C8w98.0%$0
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Stays with Golden State or Retires8w98.0%$0
What will be James Harden's next team?: Stays with Cleveland or Retires8w98.0%$3.2K
What will be DeMar DeRozan's next team?: Denver8w97.0%$2.7K
What will be Trae Young's next team?: Washington8w96.0%$0
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Stays with Boston or Retires8w96.0%$0
What will be Nikola Jokic's next team?: Denver8w95.0%$40
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: Stays with Golden State or Retires8w95.0%$29.9K
What will be Devin Booker's next team?: Stays with Phoenix or Retires8w94.0%$0
What will be Joel Embiid's next team?: Stays with Philadelphia or Retires8w94.0%$0
What will be Anthony Davis's next team?: Washington8w93.0%$0
What will be Chet Holmgren's next team?: Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires8w93.0%$0
What will be Josh Giddey's next team?: Stays with Chicago or Retires8w93.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Stays with New Orleans or Retires8w93.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: San Antonio8w91.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires8w89.0%$101
What will be Lauri Markkanen's next team?: Stays with Utah or Retires8w89.0%$100
What will be Trey Murphy III's next team?: Stays with New Orleans or Retires8w86.0%$6
What will be Aaron Gordon's next team?: Denver8w84.0%$0
What will be Andrew Wiggins's next team?: Miami8w84.0%$61
What will be Kyrie Irving's next team?: Stays with Dallas or Retires8w84.0%$3.8K
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Toronto8w84.0%$2.4K
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Los Angeles L8w84.0%$1.7K
What will be Domantas Sabonis's next team?: Sacramento8w83.0%$12
What will be Austin Reaves's next team?: Utah8w82.0%$0
What will be Jalen Duren's next team?: Detroit8w70.0%$1.4K
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Phoenix8w50.0%$0
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: New York8w16.0%$0
What will be Jonathan Kuminga's next team?: Chicago8w16.0%$1.4K
What will be Bradley Beal's next team?: Retires / No Team8w14.0%$0
What will be Aaron Gordon's next team?: Atlanta8w12.0%$0
What will be Aaron Gordon's next team?: Portland8w12.0%$0
What will be Aaron Gordon's next team?: Sacramento8w12.0%$0
What will be Bradley Beal's next team?: Washington8w12.0%$0
What will be Josh Giddey's next team?: Utah8w12.0%$0
What will be Kyrie Irving's next team?: Miami8w12.0%$11.3K
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Detroit8w11.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Portland8w11.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Utah8w11.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Washington8w11.0%$0
What will be Domantas Sabonis's next team?: Orlando8w10.0%$0
What will be Aaron Gordon's next team?: Minnesota8w9.0%$0
What will be Aaron Gordon's next team?: San Antonio8w9.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Houston8w9.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Los Angeles L8w9.0%$0
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Portland8w9.0%$0
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: San Antonio8w9.0%$0
What will be Devin Booker's next team?: Milwaukee8w8.0%$0
What will be Domantas Sabonis's next team?: Los Angeles L8w8.0%$0
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Philadelphia8w8.0%$4.7K
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Cleveland8w8.0%$0
What will be Austin Reaves's next team?: Boston8w7.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Dallas8w7.0%$0
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles C or Retires8w7.0%$251
What will be Andrew Wiggins's next team?: Dallas8w6.0%$0
What will be Bradley Beal's next team?: New York8w6.0%$0
What will be DeMar DeRozan's next team?: Sacramento8w6.0%$0
What will be Jalen Duren's next team?: Golden State8w6.0%$620
What will be Josh Giddey's next team?: Boston8w6.0%$0
What will be Kyrie Irving's next team?: Charlotte8w6.0%$0
What will be Nikola Jokic's next team?: Boston8w6.0%$0
What will be Nikola Jokic's next team?: Philadelphia8w6.0%$0
What will be Trey Murphy III's next team?: Boston8w6.0%$480
What will be Trae Young's next team?: Boston8w6.0%$0
What will be Austin Reaves's next team?: Milwaukee8w5.0%$0
What will be Chet Holmgren's next team?: Minnesota8w5.0%$0
What will be Chet Holmgren's next team?: Sacramento8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Atlanta8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Brooklyn8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Denver8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Memphis8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Miami8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: New Orleans8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: New York8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Oklahoma City8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Orlando8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Sacramento8w5.0%$0
What will be De'Aaron Fox's next team?: Toronto8w5.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 578 constituents.

Browse this series

NBA Star Next-Team Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNEXTTEAMNBA on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:20:59 GMT.