SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate222 markets

What will be Devin Booker's next team

event base · KXNEXTTEAMNBA

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 May 2026Methodology
24h volume
$85.8K
Constituents
222
Distinct tenors
2
5mo – 5mo
Top P(YES)
96.0%
Stays with Boston or R

Outcome probabilities

222 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve for KXNEXTTEAMNBA exhibits a flat structure across all 216 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical 148-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display substantial variation across teams rather than across time, ranging from 1.0% for numerous low-probability outcomes to 98.0% for the Brooklyn Nets under the JAMOR market. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, appearing across approximately 40 different team-event combinations, including markets like ATL under DBOO, BOS under DBOO, and numerous others. The highest concentration of trading volume occurs in the GANT market family, particularly for MIL (17.0%, $8,897.81 volume) and MIA (28.0%, $2,573.55 volume), suggesting these represent the most actively debated outcomes. The flat tenor structure prevents traditional yield curve analysis regarding timing expectations, as the market provides no differentiation across time horizons—all contracts resolve simultaneously in 148 days. This uniformity indicates the market is not pricing in a gradual or staged resolution but rather a single discrete event occurring at a fixed future date. The wide dispersion of probabilities across teams within the same tenor reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific outcome will occur, rather than uncertainty about when it will occur. The concentration of volume in mid-range probability markets like MIA and MIL suggests these represent genuine competitive outcomes, while the 98.0% probability for BKN under JAMOR indicates near-consensus on at least one specific scenario, though the zero trading volume raises questions about price discovery.

Generated 5/26/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

222 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Stays with Boston or Retires5mo96.0%$5
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: Stays with Golden State or Retires5mo95.0%$29
What will be Joel Embiid's next team?: Stays with Philadelphia or Retires5mo78.0%$0
What will be James Harden's next team?: Stays with Cleveland or Retires5mo70.0%$43
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Stays with Boston or Retires5mo70.0%$3.9K
What will be Devin Booker's next team?: Stays with Phoenix or Retires5mo69.0%$0
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Los Angeles L5mo68.0%$438
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Stays with New Orleans or Retires5mo63.0%$0
What will be Lauri Markkanen's next team?: Stays with Utah or Retires5mo62.0%$2.2K
What will be Josh Giddey's next team?: Stays with Chicago or Retires5mo61.0%$0
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles L or Retires5mo60.0%$16.0K
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires5mo54.0%$12
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Stays with Golden State or Retires5mo51.0%$128
What will be Julius Randle's next team?: Milwaukee5mo34.0%$0
What will be Julius Randle's next team?: Stays with Minnesota or Retires5mo33.0%$0
What will be Trey Murphy III's next team?: Detroit5mo29.0%$0
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Miami5mo28.0%$3.5K
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Miami5mo26.0%$37
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles C or Retires5mo23.0%$156
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Cleveland5mo23.0%$15.4K
What will be Kyrie Irving's next team?: Minnesota5mo21.0%$21
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Phoenix5mo20.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: San Antonio5mo18.0%$50
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Stays with Milwaukee or Retires5mo17.0%$1.5K
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Milwaukee5mo17.0%$0
What will be Lauri Markkanen's next team?: Detroit5mo17.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Sacramento5mo16.0%$0
What will be Kyrie Irving's next team?: Stays with Dallas or Retires5mo16.0%$128
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Chicago5mo15.0%$0
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Cleveland5mo15.0%$354
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Golden State5mo14.0%$0
What will be Joel Embiid's next team?: Sacramento5mo14.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Atlanta5mo13.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Brooklyn5mo13.0%$0
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Atlanta5mo13.0%$0
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Charlotte5mo13.0%$0
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Los Angeles L5mo12.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Minnesota5mo12.0%$0
What will be Josh Giddey's next team?: Utah5mo12.0%$0
What will be Julius Randle's next team?: Los Angeles L5mo12.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Denver5mo12.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Los Angeles L5mo12.0%$0
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: San Antonio5mo12.0%$71
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: Washington5mo12.0%$0
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Denver5mo12.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Los Angeles C5mo11.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: New Orleans5mo11.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: New York5mo11.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Orlando5mo11.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Portland5mo11.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Boston5mo11.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Charlotte5mo11.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Detroit5mo11.0%$0
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Philadelphia5mo11.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Utah5mo11.0%$0
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Atlanta5mo11.0%$883
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Toronto5mo11.0%$0
What will be Joel Embiid's next team?: Los Angeles C5mo10.0%$0
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Oklahoma City5mo10.0%$0
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: Atlanta5mo10.0%$0
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Detroit5mo9.0%$0
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: New York5mo9.0%$0
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Boston5mo9.0%$344
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Cleveland5mo9.0%$2.1K
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Retires / No Team5mo9.0%$230
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Milwaukee5mo9.0%$0
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Dallas5mo8.0%$0
What will be James Harden's next team?: Los Angeles L5mo8.0%$0
What will be Ja Morant's next team?: Brooklyn5mo8.0%$62
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Golden State5mo8.0%$0
What will be Lauri Markkanen's next team?: Golden State5mo8.0%$90
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Indiana5mo8.0%$0
What will be Joel Embiid's next team?: Washington5mo7.0%$0
What will be Zion Williamson's next team?: Chicago5mo7.0%$0
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: San Antonio5mo6.0%$250
What will be Jayson Tatum's next team?: Brooklyn5mo6.0%$0
What will be LeBron James's next team?: San Antonio5mo6.0%$6.0K
What will be Devin Booker's next team?: Detroit5mo5.0%$0
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Brooklyn5mo5.0%$610
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Boston5mo5.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 222 constituents.

Browse this series

NBA Star Next-Team Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNEXTTEAMNBA on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:21:15 GMT.