SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NBA Star Next-Team Markets — 218 contracts, SF signal on every row.

218 live Kalshi contracts (91 audited). Median implied probability sits at 6%. 20 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LBALL1-DET -43c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 11.8pp · cheapest KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-MIN · richest KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26AREAVES15-LAL.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNBA.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNBA
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNEXTTEAMNBA",
    "label": "NBA Star Next-Team Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 218,
    "volume24hSum": 1848129.62,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.0004
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$1.8M-38%
min $2.1Mmax $8.0M
Breadth-20%+20.0pp
min -100%max 20%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 19:30 UTC
Jul 5past 7d · UTCJul 12 · 18:23

Live contracts

218

Median IY

6¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$1.8M

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-43¢

KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LBALL1-DET

NBA Star Next-Team Markets — liquidity topography (top 49 of 218 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 11.2 → 11758.4%

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,000$1,000,0001d7d30d90d11758.45884.811.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NBA Star Next-Team Markets

Showing top 20 of 218

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

What will be LeBron James's next team?: Philadelphia10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$500.4K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Miami23¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 779%Resid —$440.1K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Cleveland42¢
IY 492%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 539%Resid —$378.8K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Golden State16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 533%Resid —$347.3K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Minnesota3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$160.6K
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Cleveland13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.7K
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Toronto81¢
IY 85%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.8K
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles C or Retires13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 544%Resid —$1.6K
What will be Kyrie Irving's next team?: Cleveland6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.4K
What will be Draymond Green's next team?: Stays with Golden State or Retires84¢
IY 69%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 124%Resid —$1.3K
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Miami17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Golden State6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.0K
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Portland6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$960
What will be James Harden's next team?: Stays with Cleveland or Retires82¢
IY 80%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 118%Resid —$949
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Los Angeles L30¢
IY 832%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 671%Resid —$941
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Cleveland37¢
IY 607%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$935
What will be Anthony Davis's next team?: Cleveland9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$904
What will be Domantas Sabonis's next team?: Sacramento40¢
IY 545%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 396%Resid —$721
What will be Trey Murphy III's next team?: Stays with New Orleans or Retires51¢
IY 349%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 263%Resid —$647
What will be Anthony Davis's next team?: Washington71¢
IY 149%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 232%Resid —$620
218 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NBA Star Next-Team Markets

From market_changes
22h agoKalshi
What will be LaMelo Ball's next team?: Detroit
6¢49→6 (-43)
open →
27m agoKalshi
What will be Jonathan Kuminga's next team?: Los Angeles L
39¢68→39 (-29)
open →
20h agoKalshi
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires
49¢68→49 (-19)
open →
5h agoKalshi
What will be Jalen Duren's next team?: Sacramento
15¢2→15 (+13)
open →
18h agoKalshi
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires
51¢63→51 (-12)
open →
17h agoKalshi
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires
63¢51→63 (+12)
open →
19h agoKalshi
What will be Bronny James's next team?: Cleveland
36¢44→36 (-8)
open →
17h agoKalshi
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires
55¢63→55 (-8)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 Jul 2026 19:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNBA →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →