SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NBA Star Next-Team Markets — 119 contracts, SF signal on every row.

119 live Kalshi contracts (91 audited). Median implied probability sits at 10%. 7 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26JBROWN7-ATL -11c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 11.0pp · cheapest KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26BJAMES9-SAS · richest KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26JGID-CHI.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNBA.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNBA
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNEXTTEAMNBA",
    "label": "NBA Star Next-Team Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 119,
    "volume24hSum": 20709.59,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00048
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$20.7K-46%
min $18.0Kmax $50.9K
Breadth-100%-25.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 00:00 UTC
May 19past 7d · UTCMay 25 · 22:23

Live contracts

119

Median IY

10¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$20.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-11¢

KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26JBROWN7-ATL

NBA Star Next-Team Markets — liquidity topography (top 31 of 119 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 15.7 → 7964.4%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d7964.43990.015.7

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NBA Star Next-Team Markets

Showing top 20 of 119

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

What will be LeBron James's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles L or Retires54¢
IY 207%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 393%Resid —$4.0K
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Miami30¢
IY 575%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 287%Resid —$2.6K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Cleveland24¢
IY 770%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 487%Resid —$2.5K
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Boston8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.4K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: New York4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.5K
What will be LeBron James's next team?: San Antonio7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.4K
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Washington3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$903
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Stays with Milwaukee or Retires16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$881
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: San Antonio3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$874
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Los Angeles L3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$615
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Oklahoma City7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$545
What will be LeBron James's next team?: Golden State7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$532
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Portland6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$443
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Cleveland4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$264
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Atlanta9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$261
What will be Steph Curry's next team?: Stays with Golden State or Retires94¢
IY 16%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$257
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?: Brooklyn7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$168
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires54¢
IY 210%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$106
What will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?: San Antonio3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Golden State3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
119 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NBA Star Next-Team Markets

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Atlanta
9¢20→9 (-11)
open →
4h agoKalshi
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Portland
2¢10→2 (-8)
open →
3h agoKalshi
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Houston
9¢15→9 (-6)
open →
20h agoKalshi
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Stays with Boston or Retires
60¢54→60 (+6)
open →
10h agoKalshi
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Stays with Boston or Retires
60¢55→60 (+5)
open →
20h agoKalshi
What will be Jaylen Brown's next team?: Stays with Boston or Retires
55¢60→55 (-5)
open →
12h agoKalshi
What will be Kevin Durant's next team?: Stays with Houston or Retires
54¢59→54 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 May 2026 23:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNBA →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →