Will Abdul Carter win the Defensive Player of the Year

The yield curve for KXNFLDPOTY exhibits a flat structure across all 50 constituent markets, as every contract shares an identical tenor of 543 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional term structure. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, representing 28 of the 50 markets, while the highest probability reaches 16.0% for MGAR. The distribution is heavily skewed toward low probabilities, with a median around 1.0-2.0%, though several outliers—MGAR at 16.0%, WAND at 13.0%, AHUT at 12.0%, DBAI and NEMM at 10.0% each—suggest meaningful heterogeneity in market expectations across the event family's constituent outcomes. The flat tenor structure prevents traditional yield-curve interpretation regarding timing expectations. However, the probability distribution itself reveals that the market assigns very low aggregate likelihood to most individual outcomes, with cumulative YES probabilities across all markets far exceeding 100%, indicating these are mutually exclusive or near-exclusive scenarios within the event family. The concentration of 1.0% probabilities suggests the market views most specific outcomes as tail events, while the elevated probabilities for MGAR, WAND, AHUT, and DBAI indicate these represent the market's modal expectations. Trading volume concentration in higher-probability contracts (MCRO, WAND, PSUR, BBUR) versus zero-volume markets suggests active price discovery occurs only around the most plausible outcomes, with the market treating the 543-day horizon as sufficiently distant that differentiation by tenor is unnecessary.