2026-27 AFC Championship Matchup

The yield curve for KXNFLMATCHUP exhibits a flat structure across all 113 constituent markets, with every position sharing an identical 182-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional curve shape. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, appearing across multiple matchups including KXNFLMATCHUP-27AFC-BALBUF, KXNFLMATCHUP-27NFC-NOSEA, and numerous Super Bowl scenarios (KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-BALPHI, BALSF, BUFGB, BUFNYG, BUFPHI, BUFSF, BUFWAS). The most expensive probabilities reach 44.0% for KXNFLMATCHUP-27NFC-NOSF and 43.0% for KXNFLMATCHUP-27AFC-KCPIT, with most intermediate matchups pricing between 2.0% and 18.0%. This cross-sectional variation dominates the market structure rather than any temporal term premium. The flat tenor structure indicates the market is pricing a single, well-defined resolution event occurring 182 days forward—consistent with NFL playoff and Super Bowl scheduling. The extreme dispersion in YES probabilities across matchups reflects genuine uncertainty about which teams will advance through the playoff bracket, rather than uncertainty about timing. Markets pricing certain matchups at 1.0% represent perceived near-impossibilities given current playoff seeding expectations, while the 44.0% probability on New Orleans-San Francisco suggests meaningful perceived probability of that specific conference championship occurring. The absence of any term structure implies traders view the event resolution date as fixe