The Open Championship

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern, with the shortest tenor (16 days) priced at 3.0% YES probability, followed by a dramatic compression at the 23-day tenor where probabilities collapse to 1.0% across all constituent markets. The curve then expands significantly at the 30-day tenor, where probabilities range widely from 1.0% to 80.0%, with a median around 5-10%. This structure reveals the 23-day bucket as the cheapest point on the curve, representing the most pessimistic pricing for event resolution. The extreme compression at this intermediate tenor is striking, suggesting a sharp market repricing between the near-term 16-day window and the slightly extended 23-day window. The market's current pricing implies skepticism about near-term event resolution, with probabilities suggesting the event is unlikely to occur within the next three weeks. However, the substantial repricing at 30 days indicates that market participants expect meaningful probability mass to accumulate beyond the 23-day horizon. This pattern suggests the market views the event as either unlikely to happen soon or contingent on developments that are not yet priced in at the shorter tenors. The wide dispersion of probabilities at 30 days—particularly the several markets trading at 80% YES—indicates significant heterogeneity in constituent outcomes, with some scenarios viewed as highly probable while others remain unlikely. Overall, the curve reflects a market expecting either delayed resolution or substantial uncertainty about which specific outcomes will materialize.