The Open Championship

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern, with the shortest tenor (16 days) priced at just 1.0% YES probability, while the 23-day bucket shows extreme divergence—one market at 1.0% alongside KXPGATOP5-THOC26-DDUV at 62.0%. The 30-day bucket, which dominates the market with 140+ constituent contracts, settles into a more stable range, though with notable variation: most markets cluster between 1.0% and 9.0%, with outliers like KXPGATOP5-GESO26-CGOT at 14.0% and KXPGATOP5-GESO26-DROD at 62.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities consistently appear in the 30-day tenor, where the modal probability is 1.0% across dozens of markets, suggesting this bucket represents the baseline pricing for the event family. The curve's structure implies the market views the event as unlikely to resolve affirmatively in the near term, with resolution probability remaining suppressed through the 30-day window. The dramatic spike in the 23-day bucket—particularly the 62.0% outliers in DDUV and DROD—suggests these specific markets may be pricing idiosyncratic catalysts or represent data anomalies rather than systematic market expectations. The concentration of 1.0% probabilities across the 30-day bucket indicates broad consensus that most constituent outcomes remain highly improbable, while the modest elevation of certain markets to 14-16% reflects selective conviction in specific scenarios. Overall, the market is currently pricing this event family as unlikely to occur within the resolution window, with no clear expectation of acceleration toward resolution