Will Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A
event base · KXSERIEA
Outcome probabilities
11 contracts at one resolution date
Analysis
The Will Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A slate has 11 mutually-exclusive contracts, all resolving on a single date. The current top-probability outcome is Inter at 48.0%.
A bespoke narrative analysis is generated by an LLM on a 24h cron. If this paragraph is showing instead, the slate has either just appeared in the index or has not yet been queued.
Constituent markets
11 kalshi contracts
| Market | Tenor | P(YES) | Vol 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Inter win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Inter | 10mo | 48.0% | $284 |
| Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Juventus | 10mo | 15.0% | $50 |
| Will Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Milan | 10mo | 11.0% | $6.6K |
| Will Napoli win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Napoli | 10mo | 11.0% | $0 |
| Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Roma | 10mo | 8.0% | $2.0K |
| Will Bologna win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Bologna | 10mo | 5.0% | $0 |
| Will Atalanta win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Atalanta | 10mo | 2.0% | $55 |
| Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Como | 10mo | 2.0% | $61 |
| Will Fiorentina win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Fiorentina | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Lazio win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Lazio | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
| Will Venezia win the 2026-27 Serie A?: Venezia | 10mo | 1.0% | $0 |
How to read this page
An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.
Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXSERIEA on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.