SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate72 markets

Will Baltimore vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series

event base · KXTEAMSINWS

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$14.9K
Constituents
72
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
11.0%
New York Y vs Los Ange

Outcome probabilities

72 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 73 constituent markets, with every position sharing an identical 68-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities cluster heavily at the 1.0% level, representing the modal probability across the majority of matchups. However, significant outliers emerge in specific pairings: NYYLAD trades at 11.0%, TBLAD at 10.0%, BOSLAD at 6.0%, NYYMIL at 5.0%, and CWSLAD at 4.0%, while most remaining markets hover between 1.0% and 3.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities are uniformly distributed at 1.0% across approximately 50 markets, indicating a baseline floor for event occurrence in these specific matchups. Trading volume concentrates in the higher-probability markets, with NYYPHI ($3,326.82), NYYLAD ($1,157.35), BOSLAD ($1,100.90), and NYYMIL ($898.42) dominating 24-hour activity. The flat tenor structure prevents traditional yield curve analysis, but the probability distribution reveals the market's conviction that the event—likely a specific sports outcome or tournament result—will not materialize in most scenarios. The clustering at 1.0% suggests near-certainty against occurrence in most matchups, while elevated probabilities in LAD-related markets (NYYLAD, BOSLAD, CWSLAD, TBLAD, DETLAD, SEALAD) indicate concentrated skepticism about specific pairings. The high trading volume in these outlier markets, particularly NYYPHI and NYYLAD, suggests active disagreement or hedging activity around these higher-probability

Generated 8/25/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

72 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will New York Y vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Los Angeles D10w11.0%$1.7K
Will Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles D10w10.0%$1.0K
Will Boston vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Los Angeles D10w6.0%$309
Will New York Y vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Milwaukee10w5.0%$1.1K
Will Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee10w5.0%$3.2K
Will Boston vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Milwaukee10w3.0%$131
Will Chicago WS vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs Los Angeles D10w3.0%$66
Will New York Y vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Chicago C10w3.0%$0
Will Seattle vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Seattle vs Los Angeles D10w3.0%$0
Will Chicago WS vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs Milwaukee10w2.0%$0
Will Chicago WS vs New York M be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs New York M10w2.0%$0
Will Houston vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Houston vs Los Angeles D10w2.0%$0
Will Los Angeles A vs Miami be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Los Angeles A vs Miami10w2.0%$0
Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Atlanta10w2.0%$19
Will New York Y vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Philadelphia10w2.0%$3.3K
Will Tampa Bay vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Atlanta10w2.0%$0
Will Tampa Bay vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Chicago C10w2.0%$378
Will Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia10w2.0%$1.2K
Will Texas vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Texas vs Los Angeles D10w2.0%$135
Will Toronto vs Colorado be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Toronto vs Colorado10w2.0%$0
Will Toronto vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Toronto vs Los Angeles D10w2.0%$0
Will Baltimore vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Baltimore vs Chicago C10w1.0%$0
Will Baltimore vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Baltimore vs Philadelphia10w1.0%$0
Will Baltimore vs San Diego be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Baltimore vs San Diego10w1.0%$0
Will Baltimore vs Washington be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Baltimore vs Washington10w1.0%$0
Will Boston vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Atlanta10w1.0%$0
Will Boston vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Chicago C10w1.0%$452
Will Boston vs New York M be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs New York M10w1.0%$0
Will Boston vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Philadelphia10w1.0%$108
Will Boston vs San Diego be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs San Diego10w1.0%$34
Will Boston vs St. Louis be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs St. Louis10w1.0%$0
Will Cleveland vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Cleveland vs Los Angeles D10w1.0%$352
Will Cleveland vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Cleveland vs Philadelphia10w1.0%$0
Will Cleveland vs Pittsburgh be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Cleveland vs Pittsburgh10w1.0%$0
Will Chicago WS vs Arizona be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs Arizona10w1.0%$0
Will Chicago WS vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs Chicago C10w1.0%$29
Will Chicago WS vs Miami be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs Miami10w1.0%$0
Will Chicago WS vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Chicago WS vs Philadelphia10w1.0%$0
Will Detroit vs Arizona be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs Arizona10w1.0%$0
Will Detroit vs Colorado be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs Colorado10w1.0%$0
Will Detroit vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs Los Angeles D10w1.0%$0
Will Detroit vs New York M be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs New York M10w1.0%$0
Will Detroit vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs Philadelphia10w1.0%$942
Will Detroit vs Pittsburgh be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs Pittsburgh10w1.0%$0
Will Detroit vs San Francisco be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs San Francisco10w1.0%$0
Will Houston vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Houston vs Milwaukee10w1.0%$0
Will Kansas City vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Kansas City vs Milwaukee10w1.0%$0
Will Los Angeles A vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Los Angeles A vs Philadelphia10w1.0%$0
Will Minnesota vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Minnesota vs Chicago C10w1.0%$0
Will Minnesota vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Minnesota vs Los Angeles D10w1.0%$0
Will New York Y vs Arizona be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Arizona10w1.0%$0
Will New York Y vs Cincinnati be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Cincinnati10w1.0%$0
Will New York Y vs New York M be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs New York M10w1.0%$0
Will New York Y vs Pittsburgh be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Pittsburgh10w1.0%$0
Will New York Y vs San Diego be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs San Diego10w1.0%$300
Will New York Y vs San Francisco be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs San Francisco10w1.0%$0
Will New York Y vs St. Louis be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs St. Louis10w1.0%$0
Will Seattle vs Arizona be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Seattle vs Arizona10w1.0%$0
Will Seattle vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Seattle vs Milwaukee10w1.0%$39
Will Seattle vs New York M be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Seattle vs New York M10w1.0%$0
Will Seattle vs Pittsburgh be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Seattle vs Pittsburgh10w1.0%$0
Will Seattle vs St. Louis be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Seattle vs St. Louis10w1.0%$0
Will Tampa Bay vs Arizona be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Arizona10w1.0%$0
Will Tampa Bay vs Miami be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Miami10w1.0%$0
Will Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh10w1.0%$0
Will Tampa Bay vs San Diego be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs San Diego10w1.0%$0
Will Tampa Bay vs St. Louis be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs St. Louis10w1.0%$0
Will Texas vs Arizona be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Texas vs Arizona10w1.0%$0
Will Texas vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Texas vs Milwaukee10w1.0%$0
Will Texas vs San Diego be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Texas vs San Diego10w1.0%$0
Will Texas vs Washington be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Texas vs Washington10w1.0%$0
Will Toronto vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Toronto vs Milwaukee10w1.0%$0

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXTEAMSINWS on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:22:18 GMT.