Alternative · Analytics aggregator
Polyguana vs
SimpleFunctions.
Polyguana surfaces Polymarket trader leaderboards and historical performance rankings — a social analytics dashboard for researchers tracking who is winning and by how much. SimpleFunctions ships the agent layer above the raw market data: a causal-tree thesis system that decomposes sentences into testable sub-claims with auto-evaluation heartbeats, an autonomous Portfolio Autopilot with a 7-gate risk cascade, computed indicators across 48K+ active contracts, and a 56-tool MCP server. Different surface, different audience, and cross-venue coverage on Kalshi alongside Polymarket on top.
Verified 2026-04 · public sources only · live SF data from /calibration
Verdict
Pick the one that fits how
you actually work.
Choose SimpleFunctions if
You need the agent layer above raw market data: a causal-tree thesis system that decomposes any sentence into testable sub-claims with continuous evaluation cycles, an autonomous Portfolio Autopilot using a 1M-context LLM and 7-gate risk cascade, computed indicators (implied yield, cliff risk index, liquidity availability score) across 48K+ contracts, and a 56-tool MCP server that drops into Claude Code or Cursor in one command. SF also extends coverage to Kalshi alongside Polymarket and publishes live Brier scores at /api/calibration.
Choose Polyguana if
You specifically want to track individual Polymarket traders — leaderboards, historical P&L rankings, top-performer analysis over time. Polyguana is built around that social analytics surface and serves researchers who want to observe and follow human traders on Polymarket rather than build systematic models, autonomous agents, or cross-venue trading infrastructure.
Polyguana surfaces Polymarket trader leaderboards. SimpleFunctions is the agent layer above the market data: thesis system, autopilot, MCP, cross-venue. Different products, different audiences.
At a glance
Three things that
actually differ.
Everything Polyguana gives you — Polymarket market analytics and historical performance data — SimpleFunctions also gives you, plus normalised cross-venue coverage across Kalshi and Polymarket with 48K+ active contracts indexed.
On top of that, SF ships a causal-tree thesis system with auto-evaluation heartbeats, an autonomous Portfolio Autopilot with a 7-gate risk cascade, computed indicators across the full contract universe, and 56 MCP tools that no current PM leaderboard product exposes.
SF publishes live Brier scores at /api/calibration — Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h price, past 90 days — so you can audit its accuracy yourself; Polyguana does not publish equivalent calibration data.
Side by side
10 dimensions · verified 2026-04SimpleFunctionsKalshi + Polymarket normalised, 48K+ active contracts indexed across both venues.
PolyguanaPolymarket only, based on publicly available information.
SimpleFunctionsGET /api/public/market/{ticker}?depth=true returns bid/ask ladder, spread, and slippage estimates.
PolyguanaNot published.
SimpleFunctionsImplied yield, cliff risk index, liquidity availability score, event overround, τ-days, and regime label pre-computed across 48K+ contracts at /screen.
PolyguanaMarket stats and price history; derived signals are computed by the user.
SimpleFunctionsNot in scope; SF tracks markets and contracts, not individual trader accounts.
PolyguanaCore feature — Polymarket traders ranked by P&L with historical performance tracking.
SimpleFunctions/api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=arb surfaces matched pairs across Kalshi and Polymarket for spread monitoring.
PolyguanaNot in scope; Polymarket-only coverage.
SimpleFunctionsLive Brier scores at /api/calibration — by venue, category, and price bucket, computed over the past 90 days.
PolyguanaNot published.
SimpleFunctionsPOST /api/thesis/create decomposes a sentence into a causal tree, maps nodes to live contracts, and runs a continuous auto-evaluation heartbeat.
PolyguanaNot in scope.
SimpleFunctionsPortfolio Autopilot — 1M-context LLM, 13 data sources, 7-gate risk cascade before any execution.
PolyguanaNot in scope.
SimpleFunctions56 tools via claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp — works with Claude Code, Cursor, any MCP client.
PolyguanaNo MCP server published.
SimpleFunctionsPublic REST, MCP, and CLI reads require no authentication; pay-per-token only on thesis and intent execution.
PolyguanaNot publicly documented.
Methodology
Verified 2026-04 from public sources only — Polyguana's documentation, public website, and publicly observable behaviour. We never claim non-public information about Polyguana's internals. SimpleFunctions claims on this page are computed live from /api/calibration, /api/public/cross-venue/pairs, and /api/public/markets — you can re-verify them yourself with curl.
Use cases
Same data, different
best fit per scenario.
Scenario 01
Building an AI agent that needs normalised prediction market data across Kalshi and Polymarket.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
SF exposes a 56-tool MCP server, a world snapshot at /api/agent/world, and a delta endpoint — all structured for LLM consumption. The /.well-known/ai-world-state spec, llms.txt, and openapi.json ensure any agent framework can discover and invoke SF capabilities without custom integration work.
Polyguana
Polyguana is a human-facing analytics dashboard. It has no published API or agent tooling, and its data surface is Polymarket-only.
Scenario 02
Tracking top Polymarket traders and monitoring leaderboard performance over time.
SimpleFunctions
SimpleFunctions does not track individual trader accounts or publish leaderboards. Its data is market-facing and contract-facing, not trader-facing.
Polyguana · best fit
This is Polyguana's core product surface. It is built specifically for researchers who want to follow top performers, review P&L histories, and understand who is consistently profitable on Polymarket. Polyguana is the clear fit here.
Scenario 03
Decomposing a complex geopolitical or macroeconomic thesis into tradeable prediction market positions.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
POST /api/thesis/create accepts a natural-language sentence, decomposes it into a causal tree of testable sub-claims, maps each node to live contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, and runs an evaluation heartbeat with confidence updates. Signals can be injected via /api/thesis/{id}/signal. No other PM data product offers this workflow.
Polyguana
Polyguana does not offer thesis decomposition, causal modelling, or automated contract mapping. It is a historical analytics and leaderboard dashboard.
Scenario 04
Auditing a forecasting model's accuracy against publicly verifiable calibration benchmarks.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
/api/calibration returns live Brier scores for SF's own forecasts, broken down by venue, category, and price bucket — Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h prices, past 90 days. Researchers can use these as a public benchmark or compare against their own model's output.
Polyguana
Polyguana does not publish calibration or Brier score data. Its focus is trader performance rankings, not systematic forecast accuracy measurement.
Live data
The SimpleFunctions claims on this page are not marketing copy. Brier scores, market counts, and cross-venue pair counts are computed live from /calibration, /screen, and /api/public/cross-venue/pairs. All public, all free, all CC-BY-4.0.
FAQ
What does Polyguana do?+
Polyguana is an independent analytics dashboard for Polymarket. It focuses on trader leaderboards — showing top performers ranked by P&L — and provides historical performance tracking for individual trader accounts. It is a social and observational tool, useful for understanding who is succeeding on Polymarket and reviewing their track records, rather than for building systematic models, automated agents, or cross-venue trading infrastructure.
Does SimpleFunctions show trader leaderboards?+
No. Trader leaderboards and individual account performance tracking are not part of SimpleFunctions' product surface. SF focuses on the market side — normalised contract prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, computed indicators, calibrated probability estimates, and agent tooling. If tracking specific traders or following top performers is the core use case, Polyguana is the better fit for that workflow.
How does SimpleFunctions' thesis system work?+
POST /api/thesis/create takes a natural-language sentence — for example, 'The Fed will cut rates before September.' SF decomposes it into a causal tree of testable sub-claims, maps each node to tradeable contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, and runs an evaluation heartbeat: news scan, price refresh, milestone check, LLM evaluation, confidence update. Signals can be injected via /api/thesis/{id}/signal. Public theses are forkable. No other prediction market data product offers this end-to-end workflow.
Does Polyguana support Kalshi markets?+
Based on publicly available information, Polyguana is a Polymarket-focused dashboard with no documented Kalshi coverage. SimpleFunctions normalises data from both Kalshi and Polymarket into a single API with 48K+ active contracts indexed, and exposes matched cross-venue pairs at /api/public/cross-venue/pairs for spread monitoring and arbitrage scanning.
What is Portfolio Autopilot and how does its risk model work?+
Portfolio Autopilot is SimpleFunctions' autonomous trading agent. It uses a 1M-context LLM, aggregates 13 data sources, and passes every candidate trade through a 7-gate risk cascade before execution — checking kill switch status, position limits, drawdown thresholds, regime classification, and more. It is designed for researchers who want systematic, rule-governed autonomous exposure to prediction markets rather than manual trade-by-trade decisions.
Can SimpleFunctions be used with Claude Code or Cursor?+
Yes. Running claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp makes 56 tools available in Claude Code, Cursor, or any MCP-compliant client. Tools cover market search, thesis management, cross-venue arbitrage scanning, indicator queries, orderbook depth, trade ideas, and more. Polyguana has no published MCP server.
Does SimpleFunctions publish its own accuracy metrics?+
/api/calibration returns live Brier scores broken down by venue, category, and price bucket, computed on SF's own forecasts over the past 90 days — Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h prices. Polyguana does not publish equivalent calibration data. Publishing live accuracy benchmarks is uncommon in this category; most products describe their outputs without auditing them against resolved outcomes.
Start for free.
Public endpoints are free for normal usage and rate-limited for reliability. Authenticated endpoints are free up to 15M tokens, then pay per token. No credit card to start.