SOL $70 strike mispriced wide; yield spread screams sell $71
M3/M4 (SOL ≥$70 by Jul 31) trades at 78c with 2845% IY annualized over 4 days. M15/M16 (SOL ≥$71) trades at 72c — a 6c spread for just $1 of additional strike distance, implying only an 8% probability that SOL finishes between $70-$71. The high-yield context (Y7: SOL $72-$72.99 bucket at 7c, 100,000% IY) confirms the tail is already being aggressively sold. Buy the $70 strike (M3) and sell the $71 strike (M15) as a 6c credit spread that collapses at expiry.
With SOL expiry markets on July 31 showing IY of 2845-3922% annualized at 72-78c prices and tau of just 4 days, there is extraordinary short-duration yield on the table. The delta flips between M3/M4 and M15/M16 suggest active two-sided flow, and the $71 strike (M15/M16 at 72c) offers a 10-point contagion gap vs the $70 strike (M3/M4 at 78c) — implying the market is paying 6c for 1 additional dollar of upside, which is structurally inconsistent with current SOL spot momentum and Bitcoin's 9% probability of crossing $67,500.
CatalystSOL spot price at July 31 11:59 PM ET expiry
RiskSOL gaps down below $70 on BTC contagion (BTC $67.5K only 9% probability per highlights)
WatchM3 resolves YES; M15 resolves NO; net 6c spread captured · by 2026-07-31
sf ideas && sf book KXSOLD-26JUL3117-T69.9999