TX-15 Democratic regime shift to neutral — fade the toss-up pricing
R1 (TX-15 Democrat Bobby Pulido) at 46¢ just flipped from taker to neutral with a regime score of 0.6 — a momentum exhaustion signal in a district that should structurally favor Republicans. The broader contagion data (C5, C6 showing Republican safe seats unchanged) confirms GOP base is holding while Democratic seats are repricing lower. At 46¢, TX-15 Democrat is priced as a true toss-up; the regime shift suggests smart money is backing away from the Democratic side. Buy NO on TX-15 Democrat at 46¢ — 54¢ of upside to zero for a binary that leans Republican structurally.
NY-22 Democrat at 84¢ is the anchor price in a cluster of correlated House race markets, yet multiple trigger markets have sold off 70-77 points while NY-22 has barely moved — creating contagion gaps of 85-90 points. These gaps represent pure lag arbitrage: when structurally correlated markets diverge this sharply, mean reversion to a new equilibrium is the highest-probability trade available. The direction is sell NY-22 Democrat (or buy the lagging contracts hedged), as the trigger market repricing is the leading signal.
CatalystTX-15 local election date; national Democratic wave probability declining per correlated market repricing
RiskLocal candidate outperformance, Pulido fundraising surge, or national environment flips Democratic
WatchTX-15 Democrat resolves NO; R1 price falls below 30¢ · by 2026-08-04
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